{"id":27796,"date":"2021-10-27T09:00:44","date_gmt":"2021-10-27T08:00:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/oecd-opsi.org\/?post_type=publication&p=27796"},"modified":"2022-06-16T12:12:38","modified_gmt":"2022-06-16T10:12:38","slug":"facets-anticipatory","status":"publish","type":"publication","link":"https:\/\/oecd-opsi.org\/publications\/facets-anticipatory\/","title":{"rendered":"Public Sector Innovation Facets: Anticipatory innovation"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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What is anticipatory innovation?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anticipatory innovation is the act of creating and implementing new, value-shifting innovations in environments of deep uncertainty, particularly for the purposes of exploration and shaping future priorities. To facilitate anticipatory innovation in the public sector, governments require strong foresight ecosystems closely connected to innovation governance structures and working methods that embed anticipatory innovation in day-to-day processes. At its core, anticipatory innovation works to make future knowledge actionable by implementing real innovations based on empirical experimentation. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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CASE STUDY<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n


The Netherlands Armed Forces Futures: Scenarios in action<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Dutch Ministry of Defence has a long tradition of foresight activities. The report \u201cDefensievisie 2035\u201d outlines principles for action to prepare the armed forces for possible futures. As part of this process, the Ministry created scenarios with a time horizon of 2025. These scenarios are intentionally fictional but with a strong plausibility and impact potential. From these exploratory, contextual scenarios, some potential future situations were derived, and analysed for the capacities and preparedness they would demand of the Dutch armed forces. As in all effective foresight processes, the scenarios themselves are less important than the insights derived from them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

???????? The Netherlands<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

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The challenge<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To make policy is to think about the future. Every policy designed and delivered carries implicit or explicit notions of the context in which it will be implemented, the intended consequences and its potential effectiveness. Often these notions are based on expectations, forecasts, predictions and assumptions \u2013 mental models \u2013 about what the world will look like and how it will work. These mental models are not well suited to situations of volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity because they project the future in a linear manner that is not reflected in reality. New forms of innovation governance are needed to allow policy makers to respond to unforeseen events and technological change in real time.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

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Main drivers and support structures of anticipatory innovation<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anticipatory innovation is driven by a mix of factors which push organisations to step away from the comfort of the present and illuminate the need to act on signals of change. OECD research has identified the following main drivers of anticipatory innovation in the public sector: the impetus to make sense of complex policy problems, the need to decide and plan under conditions of uncertainty, pressure to respond to novel societal and technological developments, and the cost of doing nothing in the face of rapid change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Table 1. Main drivers of anticipatory innovation in the public sector<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Enabling Conditions are the framework that make anticipatory innovation possible. Enabling conditions for anticipatory innovation in the public sector include: action-oriented foresight ecosystems, anticipatory governance and tested working methods.<\/p>\n\n\n\n